February 2017 Production Data
According to USDA data, the estimated average complement of U.S. hens in flocks over 30,000 during February 2017 amounted to 309.0 million, up 4.6 million from January 2016. The total U.S. flock based on USDA data amounted to 318.4 million on February 1st 2016. The average end of year flock sizes over the past five years were:- 2012 (299 million); 2013 (308 million); 2014 (311 million); 2015 (291 million) and 2016 (318 million). The emergence of HPAI with unprecedented mortality has complicated all models projecting future flock sizes and prices.
Pullet chick placements were down 4.9 percent in January to 21.7 million compared to the previous month. It is now evident that low prevailing prices will result in flock reduction due to some producers ceasing operation or from early depletion or adoption of single-cycle programs.
The total in-molt and post-molt population of hens in the 5-Regions monitored by the USDA attained 17.5 percent of the national flock in February compared to 17.4 percent in January and the 2016 average of 20.8 percent.
USDA statistics show an anticipated increase of 2.3 million started pullets to be housed during September 2016 through April 2017 compared to the corresponding months in 2015-2016. Pullet chicks hatched during 2016 (average of 22.7 million) exceeded the average monthly placements during the corresponding period in 2015 by 3.1 million pullets per month.
The large increases in pullet placements from February through June 2016 compared to corresponding months in 2015 is attributed to restocking after HPAI losses in 2015. Average monthly pullet chick placements for the first six months of 2016 amounted to 28.7 million compared to an average of 28.3 million for the second half of 2016, representing a 1.4 percent reduction. Pullet placements for the 1st and 2nd Quarters of 2017 are projected to average 19.7 million and 19.5 million respectively unless cancellations occur.
The hatchery supply flock increased from a level of 2.7 million hens in production in June 2015, coinciding with the end of the HPAI epornitic to 2.9 million hens in November 2015. Projections show a monthly average of 3.0 million and 2.8 million breeder hens in production during the third and fourth quarters of 2016 respectively. With decreased demand parent flocks will be depleted earlier than planned. The hatchery supply flock will hold at 2.6 million from March through August 2017.
Average rate of lay attained 78.9 percent during 2017 and increased to 80.0 percent in December 2016 as new pullets transferred in late October and early November 2016 achieved peak production. Average production in January attained 80.2 percent reflecting the balance between placement of pullets, their age at transfer and the rate of depletion of flocks or retention of molted hens for a second cycle. Average flock production will rise as weighted flock age is reduced by early depletion and restricting production to the first cycle.
January 2017 Export Data
According to USDA-FAS data, 272,300 cases of shell eggs were exported in January 2017 representing 1.2 percent of total production. This value should be compared to 340,200 cases in December 2016. North America (35.7 percent of exports), the Caribbean (23.7 percent), East Asia (33.1 percent, was 26.0 percent) and the Middle East (2.6 percent, was 8.8 percent) comprised the major importing regions.
Exports of shell eggs during the fourth quarter of 2016 attained an average of 321,200 cases per month compared to 290,000 cases during the corresponding 3rd Quarter of 2015 and 495.1 thousand cases during the 1st Quarter of 2015 before the emergence of HPAI. Exports will depend on progress by regulators in controlling H5N6 HPAI in South Korea and Japan, possible future embargos if HPAI emerges in the U.S., availability of eggs, the value of U.S. currency, international competition and domestic prices.
Exports of egg products in January 2017 amounting to 169.9 million case-equivalents represented 0.8 percent of U.S. output. North America (45.6 percent), East Asia (25.4 percent) and the EU-28 (21.0 percent) comprised the principal importing regions. Due to the shortage of breaking stock and reduced capacity through large in-line units, exports were curtailed in 2015 and volume decreased by 34.8 percent compared with 2014, attaining 1.7 percent of total U.S. output. For 2016 export volume was 12.0 percent lower than in 2015.
Collectively, exports of shell eggs and products in January 2017 represented the equivalent of approximately seven million hens in production during the month, attaining 442,100 case-equivalents. This was a 54.0 percent decrease compared to monthly average shipments of 960 thousand case equivalents exported over the first four months of 2015 prior to the advent of HPAI. Exports of both egg-products and shell eggs corresponded to 2.0 percent of a nominal national flock of 309 million producing hens.
Future exports will rise due to the ongoing outbreak of H5N6 HPAI in South Korea and to a lesser extent in Japan. South Korea has to date depleted 28 million hens and restoration of production to pre-HPAI levels will require replacement over a 13 to 15 month period as in the U.S. During this time the U.S. will compete with other suppliers including Spain and India (brown-shelled) and the Ukraine (white shelled) for the available market. Unless South Korea adopts regionalization this market will be closed to U.S. shell eggs. There is no scientific reason why any nation should embargo pasteurized egg products from an approved plant based on avian influenza.
FEBRUARY 2017 STATISTICS
COSTS & REVENUE
Parameter JANUARY 2017 FEBRUARY 2017
5-Region Cost of Production ex farm (1st Cycle) 60.33 c/doz 60.18 c/doz
Low 54.88 c/doz (MW) 55.68c/doz (MW)
High 76.26 c/doz (CA) 76.80 c/doz (CA)
Components of 6-Region 1stCycle Cost of Production:-
JANUARY 2017 FEBRUARY 2017
Feed 32.39c/doz 33.13 c/doz
Pullet depreciation 10.79 c/doz 10.90 c/doz
Labor 4.00 c/doz 4.00 c/doz
Housing 5.30 c/doz 5.30 c/doz
Miscellaneous and other 7.85 c/doz (adjusted Nov. ‘15) 7.85 c/doz
Ex Farm Margin according to USDA values reflecting FEBRUARY 2017:-
37.7 cents per dozen1- 61.2 cents per dozen = -23.5 cents per dozen
(January comparison 48.2 1 cents per dozen – 60.3 cents per dozen = -12.1 cents per dozen.)
Note 1: USDA Blended egg price
JANUARY 2017 FEBRUARY 2017
USDA ex-farm Price (Large) 48.2c/doz 37.7c/doz
Warehouse/Dist. Center 83.0c/doz 71.1 c/doz
Store delivered (estimate) 88.0c/doz 76.0 c/doz
Dept. Commerce retail 138.3 c/doz (Dec.) 159.9c/doz (Jan.)
5-Region Layer Feed Cost
Layer Feed Cost (Average) $206.30/ton $211.04/ton
High $238.44/ton (NW) $244.59/ton (SE)
Low $175.77/ton (MW) $180.21 /ton (MW)
Differential $ 62.67/ton $ 64.38/ton
(equivalent to 21.5 cents per dozen)
Pullet Cost (19 weeks) $3.72 $3.76
VOLUMES OF PRODUCTION
Parameter JANUARY 2017 FEBRUARY 2017
Egg-strain eggs in incubators 40.24 million (Jan.) 48.0 million (Feb.)
Pullet chicks hatched 23.11 million (Dec.) 21.7 million (Jan.)
Pullets to be housed in 5 months 20.90 million (May.) 18.9 million (June)
National Flock in farms over 30,000 304.4 million (Dec.) 309.0 million (Nov.)
National egg-producing flock 313.9 million (Dec.) 318.4 million (Nov.)
Proportion of flock in molt or post-molt 17.1% (Jan.)
Total of hens in flocks over 30,000, 1st cycle (estimate) 255.0 million (Jan.)
Inventories 1st Month January February March
Shell eggs (millions) 542.4 561.6 604.3
Frozen egg products (million egg equivalents) 305.4 316.2 -
Dried egg (million egg equivalents) 1,243 1,272 1,290
Eggs produced 7.84 billion (Dec.) 7.91 billion (Jan.)
Table-egg hens in flocks over 30,000 (97% of total U.S.) 304.4 million (Dec.) 309 million (Jan.)
“Top-6” States hen population (USDA) 170.3 million (Dec.) 167.3 million (Nov.)
Proportion of U.S. Total by State, 2016
*(over 30,000 hen flocks)
STATE DECEMBER 2016 JANUARY 2017 Proportion by region (JANUARY 2017)
Iowa 17.7% 17.6% MW 52.2%
Ohio 10.1% 9.8% NE 10.8%
Indiana 10.3% 10.2% SE 10.2%
Pennsylvania 8.5% 8.2% SC 12.4%
Texas 5.5% 5.5% CA 3.8%
California 3.8% 3.8% NW 3.0%
(Values rounded to 0.1%)
Rate of Lay, weighted hen-week (USDA) 80.6% (Dec.) 80.2% (JAN.)
Actual USDA-ERS 2015 U.S. per capita annual egg consumption revised due to HPAI:- 252.9 eggs (-14.1 from 2014)
Projected USDA-ERS 2016 U.S. per capita annual egg consumption:- 267.5 eggs (+14.6 from 2015)
Forecast USDA-ERS 2017 U.S. per capita annual egg consumption projected to be:- 266.8 eggs (-0.7 from 2016)
Eggs broken under FSIS inspection (million cases)
DECEMBER 2016 6.518 JANUARY 6.539
Cumulative proportion of total eggs 31.4% 29.8%
Parameter Quantity Exported
Shell Eggs (thousand cases) DECEMBER 2016 340 JANUARY 2017 272
Products (thousand case equivalents) DECEMBER 2016 409 JANUARY 2017 170
Total (thousand case equivalents) DECEMBER 2016 749 JANUARY 2017 442
Representing 2.0 percent of National production in JANUARY 2017