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USDA Revises Corn and Soybean Production for 2019


USDA projects 2019-2020 season corn production at 14,890 billion bushels, up 3.3 percent from the 2018-2019 based on projections of planting and yield. The carryover of corn on September 1, 2020 will be 1,650 million bushels down 5.0 percent from the current forecast. This is attributed to lower beginning stocks and higher use of corn for feed and also exports. Diversion of corn to ethanol production will remain at 5,575 billion bushels or 37.4 percent of projected production, essentially the same as in 2018-2019.

The USDA projection for 2019-2020 soybean production is 4,175 billion bushels down 8 percent from the 4,504 million bushels in 2018. This is in part due to uncertainty over frayed relations with China that ceased importing soybeans mid-2018. Current bilateral talks between the nations suggest that the trade difficulties will be amicably resolved before planting so the relative acreage for corn and soybeans may well be adjusted upwards.

USDA may have incorporated a favorable outcome of talks with China in their projections that include a total supply of 5,105 million bushels, a 2,105 million bushels crush and exports of 2,025 million bushels, 8 percent up from the 2018 season. If exports eventuate, carryover on September 1, 2020 will be 845 million bushels, 7 percent lower than in 2019.