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WEEKLY COMMODITY REPORT; PRICES RECEDE ON INCREASED PLANTING AMID YIELD CONCERNS

06/10/2019

The following quotations for July and September 2019, as indicated were posted by the CME at close of trading on Monday June 10th compared with values for Thursday June 6th in parentheses. The commodities market recorded a decline in the futures prices of corn, soybeans and soybean meal over the past two weeks. The mid-May run-up in prices was due to slow progress in planting, the possibility of reduced acreage and the prospect of diminished yields.

The absence of any definitive news regarding finalization of the trade dispute with China and previous conflicting statements by White House spokespersons over the months since the dispute began is disconcerting to the commodities market and has contributed to fluctuation in prices.

COMMODITY

 

Corn (cents per bushel)

July 416 (421)

Sept. 424 (430)

Soybeans (cents per bushel)

July 860 (868)

Sept. 873 (882)

Soybean meal ($ per ton)

July 314 (316)

Sept. 317 (319)

Changes in the price of corn, soybeans and soybean meal this past week were:-

COMMODITY CHANGE FROM PAST WEEK  
Corn: July quotation down 5 cents per Bu (+1.1 percent)
Soybeans: July quotation down 8 cents per Bu (+0.9 percent)
Soybean Meal: July quotation down $2 per ton. (+0.6 percent)

 

 

  • For each 10 cent per bushel change in corn:-

 

 

The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen

The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per pound live weight

  • For each $10 per ton change in the price of soybean meal:-

The cost of egg production would change by 0.40 cent per dozen

The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per pound live weight

 

COMMENTS

Subscribers are directed to the USDA Crop Progress Report posted in this edition for the rate of planting, crop emergence and condition.

Negotiations with China are apparently at a standstill following shuttles between Beijing and Washington in late April. Some concessions were promised by China on reducing coercive trade practices and clarifying dispute resolution although U.S. negotiators claim that China attempted to backtrack on structural issues. From an agricultural perspective the question of delays by China in approving new GM cultivars has yet to be settled. No date has been set for a summit to sign a trade deal which is as elusive as ever. Prices will be influenced by the trend in stock levels, area actually planted in 2019 and early crop progress in the face of flooding.

According to the May 10th 2018 WASDE Report #588, 85.4 million acres of corn will be harvested in 2019 to produce 15.0 Billion bushels. The soybean crop is projected to attain 4.2 Billion bushels from 87.8 million acres harvested. The levels of production for the two commodities are based on current planting, projections of yield and acreage. The WASDE to be published in mid-June will confirm the acreage actually sown to corn and soybeans respectively.

See the WASDE posting summarizing the May 9th USDA-WASDE Report #588 under the STATISTICS tab documenting price projections and quantities of commodities to be produced, used and exported from the 2019 harvest.

Unless shipments of corn and soybeans to China resume in volume, now a distant hope, the financial future for row-crop farmers appears bleak despite the release of two tranches in 2018 amounting to $8 billion as "short-term" compensation for producers of commodities. A further allocation of $14.5 billion to producers under the Market Facilitation Program was announced on May 23rd for the 2019 crop.