Market Overview
- The average wholesale unit revenue values for Midwest Extra-large and Large sizes were up by 10.7 percent and Medium size was up 13.5 percent this past week. Wholesale prices for Midwest in cartons were approximately equivalent to the 3-year average of $2.25 per dozen during mid-March. This past week shell egg inventory was down by 10.3 percent, following a fall of 3.2 percent the previous week. Although there has been a weekly increase in pullet flocks transferred to laying houses, hen numbers are diminished by the loss of close to thirteen million hens due to HPAI on twelve complexes holding from 250,000 to 2.6 million hens during the 4th Quarter of 2023. Pullets are in short supply with losses of 2.5 million growing birds mainly in California.
- This past week, chains widened the spread between delivered cost and shelf price. This could result in a potential increase in generic stock unless compensated by a proportional rise in pre-Easter demand and constant re-ordering to fill the pipeline through mid-month. Discounters are holding prices on generics influencing mainstream retail stores. Eggs are still highly competitive in price against the comparable costs for other protein foods.
- Total industry inventory was down by 9.0 percent overall this past week to 1.51 million cases with a concurrent 3.3 percent decrease in breaking stock, following a 6.0 percent fall during the preceding processing week. Demand for egg products presumably increased during the two weeks preceding Easter (March 29th Good Friday) with more home baking and entertaining. Egg products are required for the food service and manufacturing sectors although exports are at a moderate to low level attributed to domestic price. USDA Benchmark wholesale price for eggs in cartons was approximately $1.15 per dozen lower than the corresponding week in 2023.
- It is now apparent that the inventory held by chains and other significant distributors may be more important over the short term in establishing wholesale price compared to the USDA regional inventory figures. Changes in stock held by DCs and in the pipeline as determined by weekly orders are probably responsible for small cyclic fluctuation in weekly industry stock, especially into and after a holiday weekend.
- Cases of HPAI in the commercial poultry industry and backyard (non-commercial WOAH) flocks have tapered, coincident with the end of the Fall migration of waterfowl that was extended in late 2023 by mild weather. The number and extent of future possible outbreaks during the spring and fall months of 2024 cannot be projected but the current phase of the epornitic appears to be over with migratory birds having moved south following colder weather in January. Sporadic cases in backyard poultry in widely diverse states continue. More surveillance information should be released by USDA-APHIS concerning the prevalence rate of carriers among resident domestic free-living birds and a review of molecular and field epidemiology for the 2022 spring and fall waves of HPAI. The USDA has yet to identify specific modes of transmission for the 2022-2023 epornitic including likely airborne spread from wild birds and their excreta over short distances.
- The current relationship between producers and chain buyers based on a single commercial price discovery system constitutes an impediment to a free market. The benchmark price appears to amplify both downward and upward swings as evidenced over the past two years. A CME quotation based on Midwest Large, reflecting demand relative to supply would be more equitable. If feed cost is determined by CME ingredient prices then generic shell eggs should be subject to a Midwest Large quotation.
- According to the USDA the U.S. flock in production was apparently up by 4.5million hens (1.5 percent) to a new level of 306.6 million for the week ending March 27th This large increase in one week suggests an undercount in previous weeks with apparently low levels of hens entering production. The stated total flock of 312.2 million included about one million molted hens that will resume lay during coming weeks plus 4.5 million pullets scheduled to attain production. Given the latest figures it is estimated that the producing flock is at least 15 to 17 million hens lower than before the onset of HPAI in 2022. It is evident that USDA provided a more realistic figure of flock size in January having adjusted figures to account for depopulation of 13 million hens spread over the last quarter of 2023. There were evident discrepancies between published figures and the theoretical number of hens taking into account known losses and predetermined pullet replacements.
- The ex-farm price for breaking stock (rounded to one cent) was up 4.3 percent to $1.58 per dozen.Checks delivered to Midwest plants were unchanged at $1.39 per dozen this past week. Prices for breaking stock should follow the wholesale price for shell eggs usually with a lag of about one to two weeks.
The Week in Review
Prices
According to the USDA Egg Market News Reports released on March 25th 2024, the Midwest wholesale price (rounded to one cent) for Extra-large was up 10.6 from last week to $2.41 per dozen. Large was up 10.7 percent to $2.39 cents per dozen. Mediums were up 13.5 percent to $2.28 per dozen delivered to DCs. Prices should be compared to the USDA benchmark average 4-Region blended nest-run cost of 76.0 cents per dozen as determined by the Egg Industry Center based on USDA data for February 2024. This value excludes provisions for packing, packaging materials and transport, amounting to 57 cents per dozen as determined in mid-2023 from an EIC survey (with low response) and now realistically 60 cents per dozen.
Currently producers of generic shell eggs should be operating with positive margins irrespective of region and customer-supply agreements. The progression of prices during 2023 and 2024 to date is depicted in the USDA chart reflecting three years of data, updated weekly.
The March 25th edition of the USDA Egg Market News Report confirmed that the USDA Combined Region value (rounded to the nearest cent), was up $0.02 per dozen to $2.25 per dozen delivered to warehouses for the week ending March 18th 2024. This average price lags current benchmark Midwest weekly values by one week. The USDA Combined range for Large in the Midwest was $2.16 per dozen. At the high end of the range, the price in the South Central region attained $2.32 per dozen. The USDA Combined Price last week was approximately equivalent to the 3-year average of $2.25 per dozen. This past week Midwest Large was approximately $1.15 per dozen below the corresponding week in 2023 that was rising on demand to $3.40 per dozen as production recovers from HPAI depletion and with declining to stable market demand.
Flock Size
Previously the loss of approximately 13 million hens due to HPAI during the fourth quarter was not reflected in weekly USDA figures until the beginning of February. Increases in flock size during late February and early March amounted to fractions of a percent. The USDA has now published data to reflect previous losses due to HPAI depopulation and molted flocks reentering production to satisfy pre-Easter demand.
Given the importance of weekly flock numbers to pricing, accurate values for producing and total flock are required by producers.
According to the USDA the number of producing hens reflecting March 27th 2024 (rounded to 0.1 million) was apparently up a questionable 4.5 million million as an adjustment from last week to 306.6 million. The total U.S. flock includes about one million molted hens due to return to production Approximately 5.0 million pullets on average reach maturity each week, based on USDA monthly chick-hatch data for 20-weeks previously. The increase is offset by routine flock depletion and an additional loss of approximately 13 million hens during the last quarter of 2023. To date some flocks have been replaced. Based on inventory level and prices, the population of hens producing table eggs and breaking stock should now be producing at or below pre-Easter demand by consumers. Industrial and food service off-take although increasing, is approaching pre-COVID levels. Prices will continue to fluctuate but commenced a seasonal albeit late rise in price two weeks ago.
According to the USDA the total U.S. egg-flock on March 27th 2024 was stated to be up by 5.8 million hens to 312.2 million including second-cycle birds and those in molt. The weekly difference of 5.6 million hens between flocks in production and total hens is an approximate value with the difference of 1.3 million hens from last week denoting that molted hens are resuming production consistent with current demand. Given the season and the trajectory in benchmark wholesale prices, only a few older flocks were molted or depleted during March. At present it is estimated that there are 15 to 17 million fewer hens in the total flock now reflected in weekly USDA figures. The apparent difference is equivalent to about 4.9 percent of the pre-HPAI 2022 national flock of 326 million hens.
INVENTORY LEVELS
Cold storage stock of frozen products in selected centers on March 25th 2024 was 2.334 million pounds (1,061 metric tons), down 3.8 percent from 2.426 million lbs. on March 1st 2024. The monthly USDA Cold Storage Report below quantified an increase in the actual total stock level at the end of December.
The most recent monthly USDA Cold Storage Report released on March 25th 2024 documented a total stock of 30.6 million pounds (13,928 metric tons) of frozen egg products on February 29th 2024. This quantity was up 20.0 percent from the February 28th 2024 value of 25.5 million pounds. February 29th 2024 frozen egg inventory was up 4.2 percent from the previous month ending January 31st 2024 attributed to presumably slightly lower domestic or export demand or their combination. Compared to February 28th 2023 inventory of whites was up 2.9 percent to 2,993 million lbs. on February 29th 2024. Compared to February 28th 2023 yolk inventory was down 11.5 percent to 697 million lbs. on February 29th 2024.
A total of 88.0 percent (27.0 million lbs.) of combined inventory comprised the categories of “Whole and Mixed” (40.3 percent) and “Unclassified” (47.7 percent). The lack of specificity in classification requires a more diligent approach to enumerating and reporting inventory by the USDA.
Shell Inventory
The USDA reported that the national stock of generic shell eggs effective March 25th 2024 was down 9.0 percent over the previous week. Inventory over the past week followed a fall of 3.0 percent the previous week confirming low seasonal consumer demand reflected in the orders placed by buyers of the major chains. Combined with breaking stock, the total inventory of shell eggs in industry cold rooms is now at a rounded level of 1.51 million cases (1.66 million last week; 148,900 cases lower this week). The U.S. population of laying hens at this time is influenced by:-
- Losses following outbreaks of HPAI with the depopulation of over 13.0 million hens during the fourth quarter of 2023.
- The population unaffected by HPAI.
- Flocks retained after molting with an anticipated decrease in this category as influenced by prevailing wholesale egg prices, and indirectly responding to fourth Quarter 2013 flock depopulation from HPAI.
- Started pullets from chick placements during early October 2023. Going forward, younger hens will assume a larger proportion of the national flock as more flocks are placed compensating for the flocks depleted due to HPAI.
All six USDA Regions reported lower stock levels this past week. The six regions are listed in descending order of stock: -
- The Midwest Region was down a noteworthy 15.4 percent from the previous week to 399,200 cases.
- The Southeast Region was down 6.6 percent to 258,700 cases
- The South Central Region was down 11.1 percent to 221,700 cases
- The Northeast Region was down 0.1 percent to 165,100 cases
- The Southwest Region was down 7.1 percent to 115,200 cases.
- The Northwest Region was down 17.1 percent to 57,200 cases
The total USDA six-area stock of commodity eggs comprised 1,512,100 cases (1,661,000 cases last week), down 9.0 percent, of which 80.5 percent were shell eggs (81.6 percent last week). The inventory of breaking stock was down 3.3 percent to 295,000 cases. Shell-egg inventory was down 10.3 percent attaining 1,217,100 cases. These changes are a function of regional shell-egg demand coupled with a response to erratic re-stocking as buyers take advantage the industry benchmark price discovery system. A reduction in the incidence rate of HPAI may influence buyers who are now less concerned over short-term availability.
A fall in breaking stock was recorded over the past week despite some diversion to the shell egg market. Subsequent weekly stock levels of shell eggs will indicate the extent of industrial and consumer demand. Breaking is stimulated by conversion to egg powder and liquids for export and by higher seasonal pre-Easter demand for liquids by industry and food service. The average price for Midwest checks and breaking stock combined was 61.8 percent of the average value of Midwest Extra-large and Large shell eggs (67.5 percent for previous week) consistent with a 10.7 percent higher price for shell eggs this past week compared to breaking stock and checks combined that were up on average by 2.1 percent. The differential of 61.8 percent can be compared to 80.0 percent in April 2022 reflecting the initial period of high demand for both shell eggs and products. This demonstrates the respective demands for shell eggs and egg products and the interconnectivity of the packing and breaking segments of the egg industry under circumstances of extreme disturbances in either supply (lower due to HPAI in 2022) or demand (higher during early COVID in 2020). The price for breaking stock and for checks is influenced by the relative demand for generic shell eggs and contract obligations with breakers.
On March25th 2023 the inventory of other than generic eggs amounting to 416,500 cases (down 2.0 percent from last week at 424,900 cases) among three categories (with the previous week in parentheses) comprised: -
- Specialty category, down a noteworthy 15.2 percent to 32,100 cases on promotion. (was up 14.6% to 37,900 cases)
- Certified Organic, up 4.3 percent to 90,800 cases. (was up 1.6 % to 87,100 cases)
- Cage-Free category, down 5.3 percent to 293,600 cases. (was down 1.3% to 309,900 cases)
Demand for cage-free product will not increase materially over the intermediate term while generic eggs from caged flocks and some surplus down-classified cage-free eggs are on the shelf at $2.40 to $2.60 per dozen during normal supply and demand conditions. Currently there is a small differential in shelf price between conventional caged eggs compared to cage-free white but a wider difference between higher priced omega-3 enriched, cage-free, free-range and pasture-housed products. That the higher priced egg categories will experience an erosion in demand as generic prices fall is supported by the findings of a comprehensive review relating to the transition from cages to alternative systems.*
Existing and proposed individual state legislation mandating sale of only cage-free eggs will support most of the completed and anticipated transition from cages but significant additional re-housing will not be completed by the beginning of 2025, less than 9 months away and clearly never, as projected by most industry observers. The constitutional status of Proposition #12 was confirmed by SCOTUS in a May 11th 2023 decision with specific reference to the dormant Commerce Clause relating to interstate trade. It is unlikely that a legislative initiative (the EATS Act) will be incorporated into the 2023 Farm Bill (that will be delayed beyond April 2024 due to Committee deadlock), to limit the impact of Proposition #12 on sows housed for pork production. Many retail chains are ‘renEGGing’ on or extending their time commitments to achieve an acceptable transition to cage-free eggs despite coercion by animal welfare groups. The State of Utah is extending the deadline by five years. With the current proportion of non-caged flocks and lower prices for generic cage-derived eggs, cage-free eggs are surplus to demand in some areas. Organic eggs are subject to price pressure in many markets especially those served by club stores. Inventory of this category is holding solidly below 100,000 cases with this quantity representing the approximate production of three days of lay. Long-term demand for cage-free eggs will be influenced by the relative shelf prices of the category in comparison with generic white-shelled eggs from caged flocks. Inventory of this category fell below the 300,000-case benchmark this past week, but effectively is working stock given weekly production of 1.7 million cases per week. At the other end of the price range, consumers will purchase less-expensive brown cage-free product over organic eggs when there is a differential in price greater than about $1.20 per dozen under normal conditions of supply and demand. Similarly, consumers will traditionally purchase white-shelled generic eggs in preference to white or brown-shelled cage-free with a differential of over $1.20 per dozen.
A comprehensive structured market research project on cage-free eggs has provided an indication of consumer willingness to pay for this attribute. The industry requires a study on other aspects including shell color, GM status and nutritional enrichment using conjoint analysis. Above all, agricultural economists should evaluate the impact of disruption in supply and demand arising from large-scale depopulation following the 2015 and 2022-2023 HPAI epornitics and the current wave of outbreaks extending through partial restoration of hen numbers but with a disproportionate decline in wholesale prices.
*Caputo,V. et al The Transition to Cage-Free Eggs. February 2023
RELATIVE PRICES OF SHELL-EGG CATEGORIES
USDA-AMS posted the following national shell egg prices as available, for March 22nd 2024 for the preceding week in the Egg Markets Overview report for dozen cartons with comparable prices in parentheses for the previous week: -
Retail Prices
Large, in cartons generic white: $1.58 Down 48.7 percent ($3.08)
Large, in cartons cage-free brown: $2.82 Down 15.3 percent ($3.33)
Wholesale
Midwest in cartons $2.17 Up 0.9 percent ($2.26)
Large C-F, California in Cartons: $2.91 Unchanged ($2.91)
National loose, (FOB dock): $2.04 Up 4.6 percent ($1.95)
NYC in cartons to retailer: $2.55 Up 8.5 percent ($2.35)
Regional in cartons to warehouse reported March 22nd for previous week.
Midwest $2.16 Up 0.9 percent ($2.14)
Northeast $2.21 Up 0.9 percent ($2.19)
Southeast $2.30 Up 0.9 percent ($2.28)
South Central $2.32 Up 0.9 percent ($2.30)
Combined $2.25 Up 0.9 percent ($2.23)
WEEKLY ADVERTISED PRICES OF SHELL-EGG CATEGORIES W/E MARCH 28th.
USDA Certified Organic, Brown, Large: $5.02 ($5.03)
Cage-Free Brown, Large: $3.00 ($3.39)
Omega-3 Enriched Specialty, White, Large: $2.72 ($2.78)
Generic White, Large Grade A $2.04 ($1.99)
The advertised price for Large white grade A as featured for the week ending March 25th was $2.04 per dozen, (243 stores) up $0.05 or 2.5 percent above $1.99 per dozen last week. Current supply was probably in balance with retail demand the previous week given the fall in inventory held by the industry as reported by the USDA. Independent producers continue to divert shell eggs from breaking to the higher-priced shell market. Large integrated companies and packers continued to deliver to DCs and this week chains increased orders to stock stores in anticipation of pre-Easter demand
The USDA benchmark-advertised retail price for certified organic for the week was $5.02 per dozen, (493 stores), down $0.01 per dozen or 0.2 percent from the USDA price of $5.03 per dozen posted last week. A USDA advertised price of $3.00 per dozen was posted for cage-free brown during the past week (66 stores?), down $0.39 per dozen or 11.5 percent from last week at $3.39 per dozen. The price differential between USDA organic and cage-free brown of $2.03 per dozen will favor cage-free brown at the expense of certified organic eggs. Week-to-week single digit fluctuations expressed as a percentage can be expected in the stock of specialty and organic eggs based on the small base of these categories. There was a moderate upward movement in the inventory of certified organic this past week consistent with decreased demand for this category based on price and promotion of cage free eggs.
Cage-free brown at $3.00 per dozen was $0.49 per dozen (19.5 percent) higher than cage-free white at $2.51 per dozen (140 stores).
Certified organic was promoted this past week at 16.6 percent of the total, consistent with a slightly higher inventory, (last week 28.3 percent of features). Omega-3 enriched comprised 30.1 percent of features with substantially lower inventory (15.5 percent last week). Cage-free was at 11.2 percent with lower stock (52.6 percent last week). This past week Large size comprised 11.2 percent of features as the only generic down from 4.1 percent collectively last week. This confirms that retailers promote any category if available in excess of demand.
USDA Cage-Free Data
According to the latest monthly USDA Cage-free Hen Report released on March 1st 2024, the number of certified organic hens in Fee was down 0.5 percent from January 2024 at 18.3 million, (rounded to 0.1 million).
The USDA reported that the cage-free (non-organic) flock in February 2024 was up 2.1 percent from January 2024 to 106.5 million, (rounded to 0.1 million).
According to the USDA the population of hens producing cage-free and certified organic eggs in February 2024 comprised: -
Total U.S. flock held for USDA Certified Organic production = 18.3 million (18.7 million in Q4 2023).
Total U.S. flock held for cage-free production = 106.5 million (106.4 million in Q4 2023).
Total U.S. non-caged flock =124.8 million (125.1 million in Q4 2023).
This total value represents 38.3 percent (January, 37.5 percent) of a nominal 326 million total U.S. flock pre-HPAI in 2022 (but 40.7 percent of the national flock after HPAI mortality to a presumed January complement of 307 million in production). Hens certified under the USDA Organic program have decreased in proportion to cage-free flocks since Q1 of 2021.
The accuracy of individual monthly values is questioned given a history of either constant numbers or a sharp change in successive months as documented over the past two years. It is currently not possible to reconcile the USDA values for the number of cage free hens with known HPAI depopulation and projected replacement and assumed routine depletion. USDA adjusted the total and producing flocks in late February to account for depopulation due to HPAI. It is anticipated that the April release will reflect a realistic number of producing hens housed cage-free during the first Quarter of 2024. Precise quarterly reports would be more suitable for the industry in planning expansion and allocation of capital than inaccurate monthly values.
Processed Eggs
For the processing week ending March 23rd 2024 the quantity of eggs processed under FSIS inspection during the week as reported on March 27th 2024 was down 1.7 percent compared to the previous processing week to a level of 1,411,363 cases, (1,435,735 cases last week). The proportion of eggs broken by in-line complexes was 53.8 percent with less diversion to higher-priced shell markets by uncommitted producers, (53.3 percent in-line for the previous week). The differential in price for shell sales and breaking will determine the movement of uncommitted eggs. This past week 71.1 percent of egg production was directed to the shell market, (70.3 percent for the previous week), responding to the differential in prices paid by breakers and packers. Breaking stock inventory was up 3.3 percent this past week to 295,000 cases. Apparent demand from QSRs and casual dining is at stable to slightly lower levels. There is ongoing demand from baking and eat-at-home despite the weekly fluctuation in the inventory of breaking stock. During the corresponding processing week in 2022 in-line breakers processed 50.9 percent of eggs broken.
For the most recent monthly report reflecting February 2024, yield from 5,462,517 cases (7,053,712 cases in January) denoted a decrease in demand for liquid and diversion to shell egg sales over the period February 4th 2024 through March 2nd 2024. Edible yield was 38.9 percent, distributed in the following proportions expressed as percentages: liquid whole, 60.1; white, 24.0; yolk, 12.4; dried, 3.3.
All eggs broken during 2023 attained 69.78 million cases, 8.4 percent less than 2022. Eggs broken in 2024 to date amounted to 16.75 million cases, 1.7 percent less than the corresponding period in 2023. This is attributed to moderately increased demand for egg liquids from retail, food service and QSRs and casual dining restaurants. Consumers are constrained by economic uncertainty following the ending of COVID support, moderate inflation, high credit card interest rates and a tendency to purchase only essentials.
PRODUCTION AND PRICES
Breaking Stock
The average rounded price for breaking stock was up 4.3 percent this past week to $1.58 per dozen with a range of $1.51 to $1.65 per dozen delivered to Central States plants on March 25th 2024. Checks were unchanged this past week at an average of $1.39 per dozen over the most frequent range of $1.37 to $1.39 per dozen suggesting that the market for breaking stock follows prices for shell eggs following pronounced up or down swings.
Shell Eggs
The USDA Egg Market News Report dated March 25th 2024 confirmed that Midwest wholesale prices for Extra-large and Large sizes were up 10.7 percent over the previous week. Mediums were up 13.5 percent to $2.28 per dozen. A lower inventory combined with a fractionally higher price, suggests that the market is operating with stable to slightly increased demand. The following table lists the “most frequent” ranges of values as delivered to warehouses*:-
Size/Type
|
Current Week
|
Previous Week
|
Extra Large
|
239-242 cents per dozen
|
216-219 up 10.6%
|
Large
|
237-240 cents per dozen
|
214-217 up 10.7%
|
Medium
|
226-229 cents per dozen
|
199-202 up 13.5%
|
Processing:-
|
|
|
Breaking stock
|
151-165 cents per dozen
|
150-153 up 4.3%
|
Checks
|
137-139 cents per dozen
|
137-139 unchanged
|
*Store Delivery approximately 5 cents per dozen more than warehouse price
The March 25th 2024 Midwest Regional (IA, WI, MN.) average FOB producer price, for nest-run, grade-quality white shelled Large size eggs, with prices in rounded cents per dozen was up 9.9 percent from last week, (with the previous week in parentheses): -
- $2.27 ($2.06), (estimated by proportion): L. $2.23 ($2.03): M. $2.10 ($1.89)
The March 25th 2024 California negotiated price per dozen for cage-free, certified Proposition #12 compliant Large size in cartons delivered to a DC, (with the previous week in parentheses) was up 6.5 percent from last week, despite depopulation of a third of the laying hens in the state but offset by introduction from Midwest and Southwest supplying states.
- $3.14 ($2.98); L. $3.10 ($2.91); M. $2.92 ($2.82)
Shell-Egg Demand Indicator
The USDA-AMS Shell Egg Demand Indicator reported on March 27th 2024 was up 13.2 points from the last weekly report to 9.9 with a 9.0 percent decrease in total inventory and a 10.3 percent lower shell inventory from the past week as determined by the USDA-ERS as follows: -
Productive flock
|
306,547,669 million hens
|
Average hen week production
|
82.0%(was 82.3%)
|
Average egg production
|
251,478,383 per day
|
Proportion to shell egg market
|
71.1% (was 71.4%)
|
Total for in-shell consumption
|
496,929 cases per day
|
USDA Table-egg inventory
|
1,217,100 cases
|
26-week rolling average inventory
|
4.34 days
|
Actual inventory on hand
|
3.95 days
|
Shell Egg Demand Indicator
|
+9.9 points (was -3.3 on March 20th 2024)
|
The USDA Monthly Report covering January 2024 production including text, tables, data and prices and the 2nd Quarter results for Cal-Maine Foods can be accessed under the STATISTICS tab.
Dried Egg Products
The USDA extreme range in prices for dried albumen and yolk products in $ per lb. was released on March 22nd 2024. Data for yolk and whole egg powder over the past week was available from the USDA. Values are depicted for the previous week and in parentheses for the week before that. Values for past months illustrate the trend in prices influenced by HPAI depopulation and subsequent repopulation:-
Whole Egg
|
$5.00 to $6.70
(unchanged)
|
Average Sept. $ 6.51
Oct. $ 5.75
Nov. $ 5.75
Dec. $ 5.63
Jan. $ 5.40
Feb. $ 5.40
March $ 5.80
|
Yolk
|
$4.00 to $5.70
(unchanged)
|
Average Sept. $ 5.03
Oct. $ 4.75
Nov. $ 4.63
Dec. $ 4.55
Jan. $ 4.49
Feb. $ 4.85
March $ 4.85
|
Spray-dried white
|
No quotation, past week
|
Average Dec ‘22. $14.18
Jan. $14.18
March to Feb. ’24 No release
|
Blends
|
No quotation, past week
|
|
Frozen Egg Products
The USDA posted the range in prices for frozen egg products for the past week. Prices in cents per lb. based on the extreme range on March 22nd 2024 compared to the previous week showed fluctuation in price:-
Whole Egg
|
$1.34 - $1.401
|
$1.20 - $1.34
|
White1
|
$1.10 - $1.20
|
$1.08 - $1.13
|
Average for Yolks
|
$2.04 - $2.071
|
$2.01 - $2.08
|
- extreme range
Whole egg: Up 7.9%: Whites: Up 4.1%: Yolks: Up 0.5%
This indicated a relatively small increase in demand for yolks but higher demand for whole egg and whires from the manufacturing and food service sectors and for export. White was in excess of demand
February averages (January): Whole. $1.33, ($1.11); Whites, $1.26, ($1.08); Yolks, $1.91, ($1.87).
Liquid Egg Products
Values for Whites and Yolks covering non-certified truckload quantities have been released at irregular intervals over past weeks. Whole egg values attained on average 113 cents per lb. last week down 5 cents per lb. February averages (cents per lb.) are compared with January values (in parentheses): -
Whole, $1.10, ($1.01); Whites, $1.06 ($0.76); Yolks, $1.74, ($1.72).
The USDA has not released a report on dried egg inventory since March 13th 2020 due to inability to obtain data from producers, and will not issue reports for the immediate future.
COMMENTS
During the 4th quarter of 2023 and extending into January 2024, outbreaks of HPAI required depopulation of close to 13 million egg-producing hens. In contrast to 2022, broiler flocks were affected in 2023 with cases in California and Arkansas during fall of 2023 and subsequently in Nebraska. Incident outbreaks of HPAI have abated among turkey growing flocks with the last cases in NC and MO in January and February respectively. There are still incident cases recorded in backyard flocks and presumably free-living predatory birds and in scavenging carnivorous mammals and now dairy cows in three states. Given the risks and consequences of infection it will be necessary to continue to maintain high levels of structural and operational biosecurity with intensification persisting through the remainder of February. HPAI is now diagnosed seasonally in breeding colonies of marine birds in costal areas of Europe and sporadically in commercial flocks. Outbreaks in commercial flocks appear to be correlated with shedding of AI virus by migratory birds that have now moved southward with sharply colder weather in January. The downward trajectory in incident cases suggests a decline in outbreaks consistent with the pattern at the end of 2022.
Approximate losses in commercial flocks confirmed with HPAI and updates during the 2022/4 phases of the ongoing epornitic included:-
- 6,900,000 broilers on 28 farms in 8 states during 2002 - 2023
- 330,000 broiler breeders on 11 farms in 6 states.
- 360,000 upland game birds October through December 2023.
- 14,100,000 turkeys including breeder flocks in 8 states during 2022 and through 2023 year-to-date. During the past nine weeks losses have approximated 2.9 million growing turkeys with 63 incident cases confirmed in seven states (SD; ND; UT; MN; IA; WI, MI.).
- 52,300,000 egg-production hens in total with 95 percent on 37 large complexes above 0.5 million in addition to 3,500,000 pullets with a total of 54 locations in 12 states. Pullet mortality does not include “at risk” replacements depleted on affected complexes with contiguous pullet rearing. Since October 2023 more than 13.0 million hens have been depopulated in 13 outbreaks.
Losses reported by USDA during the past week ending March 20th comprised three WOAH non-poultry flocks (ME.; TX.; OR.).
Depopulation of hens (rounded to 0.1 million) as a result of HPAI in the states most affected during the fourth Quarter of 2023 comprised: OH., (4.5 m.); CA., (3.2 m); IA., (2.7 m); KS., (1.5 m) and MN. (1.0m).
Backyard flocks (non-WOAH) allowed outside access will continue to be at risk of infection in the U.S. These small clusters of birds in both suburban and rural areas are of minimal significance to the epidemiology of avian influenza as it affects the commercial industry. Backyard flocks serve as indicators of the presence of virus among free-living birds as evidenced by ongoing outbreaks in commercial poultry flocks across the U.S. The late 2023-early 2024 epornitic evidently has a long tail. Recent outbreaks in backyard flocks especially in northern tier states suggest shedding by resident, non-migratory free-living birds that may have become reservoirs. This has implications for seasonality
The USDA-APHIS published a report on the results of epidemiologic studies* on farms in early 2022 and made available on July 25th. Results for 18 egg-production case farms and 22 control farms suggested higher risk of infection associated with the presence of a farm in a control zone, proximity of wild birds, mowing or bush hogging of vegetation adjacent to the farm, and off-site disposal of routine mortality. These factors suggest possible aerogenous introduction of virus shed by wild birds onto farms over short distances. This presumption is based on anacdotal observations and recent published research from Taiwan demonstrating avian influenza virus in air in proximity to migratory birds. The USDA study predictably suggested that protection was enhanced by effective structural and operational biosecurity. The validity of findings was limited by the confounding inherent to the diversity in size of flocks incorporated into the case-control study and deriving data from a 26 page questionnaire by telephone survey, months after outbreaks, introducing recollection bias and responder fatigue.
*Green, A. et al Investigation of risk factors for introduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus onto table egg farms in the United States, 2022: a case-control study. Frontiers in Veterinary Science. Doi: 10.3389/vets.2023.1229008
It is hoped that APHIS recognises the need to provide the industry with science-based recommendations to prevent additional incident HPAI outbreaks. This presumes prompt analysis and reporting of whatever field and molecular epidemiology is collected. The Agency is also presumed to have planned epidemiologic field studies and allocated personnel and other resources in anticipation of a spring 2024 resurgence in HPAI. Given that large complexes in six states were infected during November and December, appropriate guidance from USDA-APHIS is anticipated by the Industry in advance of any spring or fall 2024 reoccurence. A release on the investigation of risk factors associated with outbreaks in dairy herds and a comment on wheter mutations have occurred in viruses isolated from infected animals would be instructive.