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USDA - WASDE FORECAST #548, December 9th 2015

  

Dec 11, 2015

    

The December USDA WASDE projections for corn and soybeans were essentially unchanged with respect to production and utilization, consistent with completion of the 2015 harvest.

The area of corn harvested was retained at 80.7 million acres with a yield of 169.3 bushels per acre contributing to a crop of 13,654 million bushels, unchanged from the November WASDE Report representing the third-largest corn harvest ever. Ending stocks were increased by 25 million bushels to 1,785 million bushels. The “Feed and Residual”, “Food and Seed”, “Ethanol and By-products (DDGS)” and the “Export” categories were only slightly changed as documented in the subsequent tables. Diversion of corn to ethanol was increased to 5,200 million bushels or 33.7 percent of the projected availability due to projections of higher fuel demand. The Stock-to-Domestic Use relationship increased numerically to 15.0 percent, from 14.8 percent in the November WASDE Report, based on a higher ending stock increased by 25 m bushels to 1,785 m bushels. The projected USDA farm price for corn was unchanged from the November WASDE values at a range of 335 to 395 cents per bushel.

 

  

The RFS for 2016 was set at 18.11 billion gallons by the EPA on November 30th. (See Editorial in CHICK-CITE). The value was 4 percent higher than the May 2015 proposal of 17.4 billion gallons. The supply of ethanol exceeds the U.S. demand by about 7 percent, based on a 10 percent blend rate resulting in export of this commodity. Crude (WTI) oil fluctuated from $40 to $43 per barrel in November but is below $40 through the first 10 days of December, despite the actions of OPEC and other producers. The prevailing low oil price reflects a slowing of World economic activity and increased oil and gas production in North America and unrestricted output from Saudi Arabia as factors determining the balance between supply and demand. It is noteworthy that China has displaced the U.S. as the largest importer of crude oil.

At the opening of trading on November 10th, January and March 2016 corn traded on the CME at 373 cents and 374 cents per bushel respectively.

The area of soybeans to be harvested remained at 82.4 million acres. Yield was unchanged at 48.3 bushels per acre. Production and utilization of soybeans and soybean meal were unchanged from the November WASDE Report. The “Beginning Stocks” category remained at 191 million bushels with a supply of 4,203 million bushels. The ending stock for soybeans remained at 465 million bushels. The USDA retained the November WASDE projected ex-farm price for soybeans to a range of 815 cents to 965 cents per bushel. At the opening of trading on December 10th CME quotations for January and March 2016 soybeans were 875 cents and 876 cents per bushel respectively.

Production of soybean meal was unchanged at 44.865 m tons. Projected soybean meal prices were reduced to a range of $290 to $330 per ton. At the opening of trading on December 10th, CME quotations for January and March 2016 soybean meal were $277 and $279 per ton respectively.

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest lower production costs for broilers and eggs.  Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic use and exports.

For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-

     The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen

     The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound

For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-

       The cost of egg production would change by 0.40 cent per dozen

       The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound.

The USDA is able to provide a reasonably accurate projection of World supply and demand for coarse grains and oilseeds based on the status of crops in the Southern Hemisphere.  World production and use of coarse grains and oilseeds is summarized for the coming season:-

    Factor   m.tons.                            Coarse grains           Oilseeds      

Output                                                  1,269                     529

Supply                                                  1,511                     621

World trade                                             159                     148

Use                                                       1,265                     445

Ending stocks                                          247                      95   

(1 metric ton corn= 40 bushels)  (“ton” represents 2,000 pounds)

 

DECEMBER 2015 WASDE ESTIMATE FOR THE 2015 CORN HARVEST: #548

 

Harvest Area                                 80.7 m* acres (88.4m. acres planted, corresponding to 91.3% of area harvested)

Yield                                              169.3 bushels per acre (up 1.3 bushels from October 2015 WASDE Report)

Beginning Stocks                         1,731 m. bushels

Production                                  13,654 m. bushels

Imports                                              30 m. bushels

Total supply                                15,415 m bushels       Proportion of Supply 

Feed & residual                            5,300 m. bushels                34.4% 

Food & Seed                                 1,380 m. bushels                 9.0% 

Ethanol & byproducts                   5,200 m. bushels               33.7 % (Was 5,175 m bushels in Nov. WASDE)

Domestic Use                              11,880 m. bushels               77.1%

Exports                                           1,750 m. bushels              11.3%  (Was 1,800 m bushels in Nov. WASDE)

Ending Stocks                                1,785 m. bushels              11.6 % (Was 1,760 m bushels in Nov. WASDE)

Stock-to- domestic use proportion    15.0%  (was 14.8 % in the November 2015 WASDE Report)

Average Farm Price: $3.35 to $3.95 per bushel. (Unchanged from the November WASDE Report)

*m.=million

 

DECEMBER 2015  WASDE ESTIMATE FOR THE 2015 SOYBEAN HARVEST AND SOYBEAN MEAL PRODUCTION:  #548

Harvest Area                                82.4m. acres (83.2 m. acres planted, corresponding to 94.8% of planted acreage )

Yield                                               48.3 bushels/acre (Unchanged from Nov. 2015 WASDE Report)

Beginning Stock                           191m. bushels

Production                                 3,981m. bushels

Imports                                           30m. bushels

Total Supply                              4,203m bushels        Proportion of Supply

Crushings                                  1,890m. bushels                45.0%

Exports                                      1,715m. bushels                40.8%

Seed                                                92 m. bushels                 2.2%

Residual                                          41 m. bushels                 1.0 %

Total Use                                   3,738 m. bushels               88.9%

Ending Stocks                               465m. bushels                11.1% 

Average Farm Price:  815 to 965 cents per bushel (Unchanged from the November 2015 WASDE Report)  

Soybean Meal

 Beginning Stocks                            260 m  tons

Production                                   44.865 m.  tons

Imports                                              325 m. tons

Total Supply                                 45.450 m. tons                           

Domestic Use                                33.300 m. tons

Exports                                          11.850 m. tons

Total Use                                       45.150 m. tons 

Ending Stocks                                      300 m. tons 

Average Price ex plant$290 to $330 per ton (Down $10 per ton on both ends of the range in the November  WASDE report)