Share via Email

 
* Email To:      (Separate multiple addresses with a semicolon)
* Email From:    (Your IP Address is 54.225.41.203 )
* Email Subject:    (personalize your message)
* Required:  
ID=7355  
Email Body:   
 

USDA- WASDE FORECAST #555, July 12th 2016

  

Jul 13, 2016

    

Overview

The July 12th USDA WASDE projections for the 2016-17 corn and soybean crops reflected actual  planting data and recent crop progress reports. Harvest areas for corn and soybeans were raised by 1 percent and 2.3 percent respectively to 86.6 million acres and 83.0 million acres.

  

Corn

The corn harvest should attain a near record of 14,540 million bushels based on a yield of 168.0 bushels per acre. The “Feed and Residual” category was established to be 5,550 million bushels but the “Food and Seed” category was raised 5 million bushels as documented in the subsequent tables. Diversion of corn to ethanol was projected at 5,295 million bushels or 32.4 percent of the increased availability despite projections of lower U.S. fuel demand. It is evident that increased ethanol production will be exported. The corn “Exports” category was increased by 5.1 percent to 2,050 million bushels compared to the June WASDE Report. Residual corn stock was adjusted to 2,081 million bushels. The projected USDA range in farm price retained the 60 cent per bushel spread but decreased price by 10 cents per bushel on either end of the range compared to the June WASDE Report, attaining 310 to 370 cents per bushel.

The RFS for 2016 was belatedly determined to be 18.11 billion gallons by the EPA on November 30th 2015 (See Editorial in CHICK-CITE). The value was 4 percent higher than the May 2015 proposal of 17.4 billion gallons. The prevailing low oil price reflects a slowing of World economic activity and increased oil and gas production in North America coupled with unrestricted output from Saudi Arabia, lower production from Nigeria and Venezuela, resumption of supply from Iran, reduced impact of OPEC as contributory factors determining the balance between supply and demand.

At the close of trading on July 12th, CME quotations for July and September 2016 corn were 353 cents and 352 cents per bushel respectively, approximately 17 percent below the June values.

Soybeans                                                               

The area of soybeans to be harvested increased by 2.3 percent to 83.0 million acres, with a yield of 46.7 bushels per acre and a projected production of 3,880 million bushels. The “Beginning Stocks” category was revised down to 350 million bushels with a supply of 4,260 million bushels. The “Exports” category was lowered by 70 million bushels to 1,920 million bushels. Ending stock for soybeans was projected to be 290 million bushels due to changes in crushing and exports relative to availability. The USDA retained the ex-farm price for soybeans as projected in June to a range to 875 cents to 1,025 cents per bushel. At the close of trading on June 12th CME quotations for soybeans for July and September delivery were 1,107 cents and 1,182 cents per bushel respectively, approximately 6.3 percent below the June values.

Production of soybean meal was projected to be 45.675 million tons. Estimated soybean meal prices were raised $5 per ton in July to a range of $325 to $365 per ton. At the close of trading on July 12th, CME quotations for July and September 2016 soybean meal were $378 and $377 respectively, approximately 6.2 percent less than in June.

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest stable production costs for broilers and eggs.  Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic use and exports.

  • For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-
  • The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
  • The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound
  • For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-
  • The cost of egg production would change by 0.40 cent per dozen
  • The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound.
  

World Situation

The USDA is able to provide a reasonably accurate projection of World supply and demand for coarse grains and oilseeds based on the status of crops in the Southern Hemisphere.  Global coarse grain production will attain 1,302 million metric tons.

World production and use of total grains and oilseeds as summarized for the 2016/2017 season are:-

    Factor   m.tons.                            Coarse grains           Oilseeds      

Output                                                  1,302                     536

Supply                                                  1,545                     619

World trade                                             172                     157

Use                                                       1,303                     462

Ending stocks                                          240                      76   

(1 metric ton corn= 40 bushels)  (“ton” represents 2,000 pounds)

 

JULY  2016 WASDE #555 ESTIMATE FOR THE 2016/7 CORN HARVEST:

Harvest Area                                 86.6 m* acres (94.1 m. acres planted, corresponding to 92.0% of area harvested)

Yield                                              168.0 bushels per acre

Beginning Stocks                         1,701 m. bushels

Production                                  14,540 m. bushels

Imports                                              40 m. bushels

Total supply                                16,281 m bushels       Proportion of Supply 

Feed & residual                            5,550 m. bushels                33.8% 

Food & Seed                                 1,375 m. bushels                 8.4% 

Ethanol & byproducts                   5,275 m. bushels               32.4 %

Domestic Use                              12,150 m. bushels               74.6%

Exports                                           2,050 m. bushels              12.6%

Ending Stocks                                2,081 m. bushels              12.8 %

Stock-to- domestic use proportion    17.2%  (was 16.4 in the June WASDE Report)

Average Farm Price: $3.10 to $3.70 per bushel. (Down 10 cents on either end of the June WASDE range)

                                                                                                       

*m.=million

 

 

 

JULY 2016 WASDE #555 ESTIMATE FOR THE 2016/7 SOYBEAN HARVEST AND FOR SOYBEAN MEAL PRODUCTION: 

Harvest Area                                83.0m. acres (83.7 m. acres planted, corresponding to 99.0% of planted acreage )

Yield                                               46.7 bushels/acre

Beginning Stock                           350m. bushels

Production                                 3,880 bushels

Imports                                           30m. bushels

Total Supply                              4,260m bushels        Proportion of Supply

Crushings                                  1,925m. bushels                45.1%

Exports                                      1,920m. bushels                45.1%

Seed                                                95 m. bushels                 2.2%

Residual                                          30 m. bushels                 0.7 %

Total Use                                   3,970 m. bushels               93.1%

Ending Stocks                               290m. bushels                 6.9% 

Average Farm Price:  875 to 1.025 cents per bushel (Unchanged from the June WASDE Report)  

Soybean Meal

 Beginning Stocks                            300 m  tons

Production                                   45.675 m.  tons

Imports                                              325 m. tons

Total Supply                                 46.300 m. tons                           

Domestic Use                                33.800 m. tons

Exports                                          12.200 m. tons

Total Use                                       46.800 m. tons 

Ending Stocks                                      300 m. tons 

Average Price ex plant:  $325 to $365 per ton (Up $5 per ton on either end of the June WASDE report)