November 2016 Production Data
According to USDA data, the estimated average complement of U.S. hens in flocks over 30,000 during October 2016 amounted to 295.2 million, up 1.3 million from September. The total U.S. flock based on USDA data amounted to 304.7 million on November 1st 2016. The average annual flock sizes for 2012, 2013 and 2014 were 285.3, 289.1 and 303.0 million hens respectively. The emergence of HPAI with unprecedented mortality has complicated all models projecting future flock sizes and prices.
Pullet chick placements were down 3.6 percent in October compared to the previous month. It is now evident that low prevailing prices will result in flock reduction due to some producers ceasing operation or from early depletion or adoption of single-cycle programs.
The total in-molt and post-molt population of hens in the 5-Regions monitored by the USDA decreased by 0.4 percent in November 2016 to 18.4 percent of the national flock compared to 18.8 percent in October and the 2015 average of 21.0 percent.
USDA statistics show an anticipated increase of 8.1 million pullets to be housed during August 2016 through April 2017 compared to the corresponding months in 2015-2016. Pullet chicks hatched during the first ten months of 2016 (average of 24.87 million) exceeded the average monthly placements during the corresponding period in 2015 by 1.22 million pullets per month.
The large increases in pullet placements from February through June 2016 compared to corresponding months in 2015 is attributed to restocking after HPAI losses in 2015. Average monthly pullet chick placements for the first five months of 2016 amounted to 26.33 million compared to an average of 23.405 million for the second five-month period of 2016, representing an 11.1 percent reduction.
The hatchery supply flock increased from a level of 2.7 million hens in production in June 2015, coinciding with the end of the HPAI epornitic to 2.9 million hens in November 2015. Projections show a monthly average of 3.0 million and 2.8 million breeder hens in production during the third and fourth quarters of 2016 respectively. With decreased demand parent flocks will be depleted earlier than planned. The hatchery supply flock will decline to 2.5 million hens in April 2017.
Slaughter of hens under USDA-FSIS inspection attained 4.2 million in October down 12.5 percent from September. This is lower than the pre-HPAI monthly average of 5.8 million hens over the period extending from January through May 2015 and is also lower than the 6-year average of 5.3 million hens during the month of October. Depending on availability of housing, flocks were retained from June through December 2015 to take advantage of higher prices. Regular mortality and alternative methods of flock disposal including landfills, rendering and shipment of live hens to Canada, accounts for the majority of depletion amounting to an average of 12 to 13 million hens per month.
Average rate of lay attained 78.6 percent over the first ten months of 2016 and increased to 79.5 percent in October as new pullets transferred in late August and early September 2016 achieved peak production. Average production reflects the balance between placement of pullets, their age at transfer and the rate of depletion of flocks or retention of molted hens for a second cycle. Average flock production will rise as weighted flock age is reduced by early depletion and restricting production to the first cycle.
October 2016 Export Data
According to USDA-FAS data, 331 thousand cases of shell eggs were exported in October 2016 representing 1.6 percent of total production, this value should be compared to 411 thousand cases in September. North America (30.9 percent, was 38.9 percent of exports in September), the Caribbean (26.2 percent), East Asia (26.0 percent, was 19.7 percent) and the Middle East (12.5 percent) comprised the major importing regions.
Exports of shell eggs during the third quarter of 2016 attained an average of 330.0 thousand cases per month compared to 349.7 thousand cases during the corresponding 3rd Quarter of 2015 and 495.1 thousand cases during the 1st Quarter of 2015 before the emergence of HPAI. Exports will depend on possible future embargos, availability of eggs, value of U.S. currency, international competition and domestic prices.
Exports of egg products in October 2016 amounting to 366.9 million case-equivalents represented 1.8 percent of U.S. output. North America (36.9 percent), East Asia (28.0 percent) and the EU-28 (15.0 percent compared to 26.9 percent last month,) comprised the principal importing regions. Due to the shortage of breaking stock and reduced capacity through large in-line units, exports were curtailed in 2015 and volume decreased by 34.8 percent compared with 2014, attaining 1.7 percent of total U.S. output. For the first ten months of 2016 export volume was 30.6 percent lower than in 2015.
Collectively, exports of shell eggs and products in October 2016 represented the equivalent of approximately eight million hens in production during the month, attaining 697 thousand case-equivalents. This was a 27.4 percent decrease compared to monthly average shipments of 960 thousand case equivalents exported over the first four months of 2015 prior to the advent of HPAI. Exports of both egg-products and shell eggs corresponded to 2.9 percent of a nominal national flock of 303 million hens.
NOVEMBER 2016 STATISTICS
COSTS & REVENUE
Parameter NOVEMBER 2016 OCTOBER 2016
5-Region Cost of Production ex farm (1st Cycle) 59.28 c/doz 58.64 c/doz
Low 54.32 c/doz (MW) 54.24c/doz (MW)
High 74.92 c/doz (CA) 75.12 c/doz (CA)
Components of 6-Region 1stCycle Cost of Production:-
NOVEMBER 2016 OCTOBER 2016
Feed 31.46c/doz 30.90 c/doz
Pullet depreciation 10.67 c/doz 10.59 c/doz
Labor 4.00 c/doz 4.00 c/doz
Housing 5.30 c/doz 5.30 c/doz
Miscellaneous and other 7.85 c/doz (adjusted Nov. ‘15) 7.85 c/doz
Ex Farm Loss according to USDA values reflecting NOVEMBER 2016:-
35.9 cents per dozen1- 59.2 cents per dozen = -23.3 cents per dozen
(October comparison 29.3 1 cents per dozen – 58.6 cents per dozen = -29.3 cents per dozen.)
Note 1: USDA Blended egg price
NOVEMBER 2016 OCTOBER 2016
USDA ex-farm Price (Large) 35.9c/doz 29.5 c/doz
Warehouse/Dist. Center 57.7c/doz 44.1 c/doz
Store delivered 63.2c/doz 49.6 c/doz
Dept. Commerce retail 139.0 c/doz (Oct.) 147.1c/doz (Sept.)
5-Region Layer Feed Cost
Layer Feed Cost (Average) $200.39/ton $196.84/ton
High $217.77/ton (NW)* $222.66/ton (SE)
Low $172.65/ton (MW) $172.18 /ton (MW)
Differential $ 45.12/ton $ 50.43/ton
(equivalent to 11.0 cents per dozen)
Pullet Cost (19 weeks) $3.68 $3.74
*No data for Southeast Region
VOLUMES OF PRODUCTION
Parameter NOVEMBER 2016 OCTOBER 2016
Egg-strain eggs in incubators 41.68 million (Nov.) 40.7 million (Oct.)
Pullet chicks hatched 22.04 million (Oct.) 22.2 million (Sept.)
Pullets to be housed in 5 months 19.30 million (Mar.) 18.7 million (Feb.)
National Flock in farms over 30,000 295.2 million (Oct.) 293.9 million (Sept.)
National egg-producing flock 304.7 million (Oct.) 303.4 million (Sept.)
Proportion of flock in molt or post-molt 18.4% (Nov.)
Total of hens in 1st cycle (estimate) 249.0 million (Oct.)
5-Region proportion of in molt or molted hens 18.4% 18.9%
High (SE) 27.2% (SC) 27.6%
Low (NE) 3.2% (NE) 1.8%
Hens processed under FSIS inspection 4.2 million (Oct.) 4.8 million (Sept.)
Eggs produced 7.51 billion (Oct.) 7.21 billion (Sept.)
Table-egg hens in flocks over 30,000 (97.2% of total U.S.) 295.2 million (Oct.) 293.9 million (Sept.)
“Top-6” States hen population (USDA) 162.6 million (Oct.) 162.2 million (Sept.)
Proportion of U.S. Total by State, 2016
*(over 30,000 hen flocks)
STATE OCTOBER 2016 SEPTEMBER 2016 Proportion by region (OCTOBER 2016.)
Iowa 17.7% 17.8% MW 52.6%
Ohio 10.3% 10.6% NE 11.0%
Indiana 9.4% 9.5% SE 10.6%
Pennsylvania 8.5% 8.4% SC 12.5%
Texas 5.5% 5.6% CA 3.7%
California 3.7% 3.9% NW 3.0%
(Values rounded to 0.1%)
Rate of Lay, weighted hen-week (USDA) 79.5% (Oct.) 79.2% (Sept.)
Actual USDA-ERS 2015 U.S. per capita annual egg consumption revised due to HPAI:- 253.0 eggs (-14.1 from 2014)
Projected USDA-ERS 2016 U.S. per capita annual egg consumption projected to be:- 266.5 eggs (+13.6 from 2015)
Forecast USDA-ERS 2017 U.S. per capita annual egg consumption projected to be:- 267.1 eggs (+0.6 from 2016)
Eggs broken under FSIS inspection (million cases)
OCTOBER 2016 6.804 SEPTEMBER 2016 6,544
Cumulative proportion of total eggs 31.6% 31.6%
Parameter Quantity Exported
Shell Eggs (thousand cases) OCTOBER 2016 331 September 2016 411
Products (thousand case equivalents) OCTOBER 2016 367 September 2016 355
Total (thousand case equivalents) OCTOBER 2016 698 September 2016 766
Representing 3.4 percent of National production in October 2016