Share via Email

 
* Email To:      (Separate multiple addresses with a semicolon)
* Email From:    (Your IP Address is 54.224.162.138 )
* Email Subject:    (personalize your message)
* Required:  
ID=8350  
Email Body:   
 

USDA- WASDE FORECAST #560, December 9th 2016

  

Dec 14, 2016

    

Overview

The December 9th USDA WASDE projections for the 2016 corn and soybean crops reflected actual harvest data. Harvest areas for corn and soybeans remained at 86.8 million and 83 million acres respectively. The USDA retained corn and soybean yields at 175.3 bushels per acre and 52.5 bushels per acre. Ending stocks for corn and soybeans were unchanged at 2,403 million bushels and 480 million bushels.

  

Corn

The corn harvest attained a near record of 15,225 million bushels. None of the major categories of use were changed as is normal for the December WASDE report which reflects actual harvest. The projected USDA range in farm price incorporated a 60 cent per bushel spread and price was raised by 10 cents per bushel on the low end and by 5 cents per bushel on the high end of the range compared to the November WASDE Report, attaining 305 to 365 cents per bushel. Near close of trading on December 9th, CME quotations for December ‘16 and March ‘17 corn were 351 cents and 359 cents per bushel respectively, approximately 10 cents per bushel above 1st week November trade levels.

The RFS for 2016 was belatedly determined to be 18.11 billion gallons by the EPA on November 30th 2015 (See Editorial in CHICK-CITE). The value was four percent higher than the May 2015 proposal of 17.4 billion gallons. It is doubtful that the incoming Administration will alter existing RFS levels given support of the Midwest agricultural sector to the election outcome. A wild card will be the influence of the EPA-Director designate who favors the oil and refining industries which oppose the RFS. Business associates of the President-elect have recently commented adversely on the system of Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) which affect the profitability of many domestic refineries. The coming year should emerge as an interesting exercise in power shifts with very little precedent to indicate future policy “as the swamp drains”

The prevailing but stable historically low oil price reflects a slowing of World economic activity and increased oil and gas production in North America. Supply is a function of unrestricted output from Saudi Arabia, lower production from Nigeria and Venezuela, resumption of supply from Iraq and Iran, and interference by Russia in Mideast affairs. Reduced output according to an OPEC “agreement” in early December are all contributory factors, determining the balance between supply and demand which is important to the livestock industry as oil price is correlated to grain prices. The WTI fluctuated between $47 and $49 per barrel during the past month but rose after the OPEC Agreement, to settle up 4 percent to $52 on December 9th.

  

Soybeans

The area of soybeans to be harvested remained at 83.0 million acres with a known yield of 52.5 bushels per acre, corresponding to a production of 4,361 million bushels. No other use parameters were changed from the November report.  USDA raised the ex-farm price for soybeans from November projections to a range of 870 cents to 1,020 cents per bushel. Near the close of trading CME quotations for soybeans for January and March ‘17 delivery were 1,039 cents and 1,049 cents per bushel respectively, approximately 5.5 percent above the November WASDE values.

Production of soybean meal was reduced 0.4 percent to 45,611 million tons. Estimated soybean meal prices were retained from November over a range of $305 to $345 per ton. Near close of trading on December 9th, CME quotations for December 2016 and March 2017 soybean meal were $319 and $324 respectively, approximately three percent more than in the November WASDE Report.

The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest moderately higher production costs for broilers and eggs.  Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic use and exports.

  • For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-
  • The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
  • The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound
  • For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-
  • The cost of egg production would change by 0.40 cent per dozen
  • The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound.

World Situation

The USDA is able to provide a reasonably accurate projection of World supply and demand for coarse grains and oilseeds based on the status of crops in the Southern Hemisphere.  Global coarse grain production was increased 0.8 million metric tons to 1,329 million metric tons. The USDA predict increased output of corn from China, Russia, Canada and Brazil which has recovered from drought and has planted more area. This will be offset by reduced production in Argentine. With respect to trade Brazil will increase corn exports and Iran and Egypt will import more corn.

Oilseed production will increase by 0.7 percent due to larger harvests of soybeans in India and Canada and sunflower by South Africa and Russia.

Updated World production and use of total grains and oilseeds as summarized for the 2016/2017 season are:-

 

    Factor   m.tons.                            Coarse grains           Oilseeds      

Output                                                  1.319                     551

Supply                                                  1.564                     640

World trade                                             182                     160

Use                                                       1.314                     464

Ending stocks                                          251                      93  

 (1 metric ton corn= 40 bushels)  (“ton” represents 2,000 pounds)

 

DECEMBER 2016 WASDE #560 ESTIMATE FOR THE 2016 CORN HARVEST:

Harvest Area                                 86.8 m* acres (94.5 m. acres planted, corresponding to 91.9 % of area harvested)

Yield                                              175.3 bushels per acre (was 173.4 in the October Report)

Beginning Stocks                         1,738 m. bushels

Production                                  15,225 m. bushels

Imports                                              50 m. bushels

Total supply                                17,013 m bushels       Proportion of Supply 

Feed & residual                            5,650 m. bushels                33.3% 

Food & Seed                                 1,435 m. bushels                 8.4% 

Ethanol & byproducts                   5,300 m. bushels               31.1 %

Domestic Use                              12,385 m. bushels               72.8%

Exports                                           2,225 m. bushels              13.1%

Ending Stocks                                2,403 m. bushels              14.1 %

Stock-to- domestic use proportion    19.4% (was 18.9% in the November WASDE Report)

Average Farm Price: $3.05 to $3.65 per bushel. (Up 10 cents on the low end and up 15 cents on the high end of the November WASDE range)

*m.=million

 

DECEMBER 2016 WASDE #560 ESTIMATE FOR THE 2016 SOYBEAN HARVEST AND SOYBEAN MEAL PRODUCTION: 

Harvest Area                                83.0m. acres (83.7 m. acres planted, corresponding to 99.0% of planted acreage )

Yield                                               52.5 bushels/acre (was 51.4 in October Report)

Beginning Stock                           197m. bushels

Production                                  4,361m bushels

Imports                                           30m. bushels

Total Supply                              4,588m bushels        Proportion of Supply

Crushings                                  1,931m. bushels                42.1%

Exports                                      2,050m. bushels                44.8%

Seed                                                95 m. bushels                 2.0%

Residual                                          32 m. bushels                0.7 %

Total Use                                   4,108 m. bushels                89.5%

Ending Stocks                               480m. bushels                 10.5% 

Average Farm Price:  870 to 1,020 cents per bushel (Up 25 cents per bushel on both ends of the November WASDE Report)  

Soybean Meal

 Beginning Stocks                            264 m  tons

Production                                   45.611 m.  tons

Imports                                              325 m. tons

Total Supply                                 46.200 m. tons                           

Domestic Use                                34.100 m. tons

Exports                                          11,800 m. tons

Total Use                                       45,900 m. tons 

Ending Stocks                                      300 m. tons 

Average Price ex plant$305 to $345 per ton (Unchanged from the November WASDE report)