At the close of trading on January 13th, March and May 2016 corn traded on the CME at 356 cents and 360 cents per bushel respectively.
The area of soybeans harvested was reduced to 81.8 million acres. Yield was reduced fractionally to 48.0 bushels per acre with a production of 3,930 million bushels. The “Beginning Stocks” category remained at 191 million bushels with a supply of 4,150 million bushels down 5.3 million bushels. The ending stocks for soybeans declined by 5.3 percent to 440 million bushels. The USDA lowered the December WASDE projected ex-farm price for soybeans by 10 cents on either end of the range to 805 cents to 955 cents per bushel. At the opening of trading on January 13th CME quotations for soybeans for March and May delivery were 897 cents and 880 cents per bushel respectively.
Production of soybean meal was reduced 0.3 percent to 44.715 m tons. Projected soybean meal prices were reduced from $the December projection by $20 per ton to a range of $270 to $310 per ton. At the close of trading on January 13th, CME quotations for March and May 2016 soybean meal were $276 and $280 per ton respectively.
The price projections based on CME quotations for corn and soybeans suggest lower production costs for broilers and eggs. Going forward, prices of commodities will be determined by World supply and demand and U.S. domestic use and exports.
For each 10 cents per bushel change in corn:-
The cost of egg production would change by 0.45 cent per dozen
The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound
For each $10 per ton change in the cost of soybean meal:-
The cost of egg production would change by 0.40 cent per dozen
The cost of broiler production would change by 0.25 cent per live pound.
The USDA is able to provide a reasonably accurate projection of World supply and demand for coarse grains and oilseeds based on the status of crops in the Southern Hemisphere. World production and use of coarse grains and oilseeds is summarized for the coming season:-
Factor m.tons. Coarse grains Oilseeds
Output 1,262 527
Supply 1,505 618
World trade 158 148
Use 1,201 447
Ending stocks 245 90
(1 metric ton corn= 40 bushels) (“ton” represents 2,000 pounds)
JANUARY 2016 WASDE ESTIMATE FOR THE 2015/6 CORN HARVEST: #549
Harvest Area 80.7 m* acres (88.0m. acres planted, corresponding to 91.7% of area harvested)
Yield 168.4 bushels per acre (down 0.4 bushels from December 2015 WASDE Report)
Beginning Stocks 1,731 m. bushels
Production 13,601 m. bushels
Imports 40 m. bushels
Total supply 15,372 m bushels Proportion of Supply
Feed & residual 5,300 m. bushels 34.5%
Food & Seed 1,370 m. bushels 8.9%
Ethanol & byproducts 5,200 m. bushels 33.8 % (Unchanged from December WASDE)
Domestic Use 11,870 m. bushels 77.2%
Exports 1,700 m. bushels 11.1% (Was 1,750 m bushels in Dec. WASDE)
Ending Stocks 1,802 m. bushels 11.7 % (Was 1,785 m bushels in Dec. WASDE)
Stock-to- domestic use proportion 15.2% (was 15.0 % in the December 2015 WASDE Report)
Average Farm Price: $3.30 to $3.90 per bushel. (Down 5 cents on both ends of the December WASDE range)
*m.=million
JANUARY 2016 WASDE ESTIMATE FOR THE 2015/6 SOYBEAN HARVEST AND SOYBEAN MEAL PRODUCTION: #549
Harvest Area 81.8m. acres (82.7 m. acres planted, corresponding to 98.9% of planted acreage )
Yield 48.0 bushels/acre (Was 48.3 bushels per acre in Dec. 2015 WASDE Report)
Beginning Stock 191m. bushels
Production 3,930m. bushels
Imports 30m. bushels
Total Supply 4,150m bushels Proportion of Supply
Crushings 1,890m. bushels 45.5%
Exports 1,690m. bushels 40.7%
Seed 92 m. bushels 2.2%
Residual 39 m. bushels 1.0 %
Total Use 3,711 m. bushels 89.4%
Ending Stocks 440m. bushels 10.6%
Average Farm Price: 805 to 955 cents per bushel (Down 10 cents per bushel from 2015 WASDE Report)
Soybean Meal
Beginning Stocks 260 m tons
Production 44.715 m. tons
Imports 325 m. tons
Total Supply 45.300 m. tons
Domestic Use 33.300 m. tons
Exports 11.700 m. tons
Total Use 45.000 m. tons
Ending Stocks 300 m. tons
Average Price ex plant: $270 to $310 per ton (Down $20 per ton on both ends of the range in the December WASDE report)