In contrast to the COVID years and shortly thereafter, freight rates have declined for both negotiated and spot markets.  Retailers and distributors are holding inventories at low levels and are aggressive in negotiating prices.

As with any commodity rates are determined by supply and demand. Trucking capacity now exceeds demand resulting in extreme competition and lower prices.  The downward trend will continue until balance is restored according to an analyst at J.P. Morgan.

Since mid-2020, 325,000 carrier units have entered the industry with 231,000 departures.  Many trucking companies are burning through accumulated profits earned during the COVID years.  The questions are whether rates have now bottomed after the prolonged slump and if there are prospects for increases as retailers restock distribution centers.