Egg Industry Statistics and Reports


Updated USDA Projections for 2018 and 2019 Egg Production

11/15/2018

The USDA Economic Research Service issued an updated November 15 th 2018 forecast of egg production. The volume of eggs produced and per capita consumption in 2019 were increased by 1.7 and 0.2 percent respectively over 2018. Consistent with this disparity the benchmark New York price was reduced by 12.1 percent in unit value Production data reflecting 2016 and 2017 should be compared to 2015 which was impacted by the Spring outbreak of HPAI in the upper-Midwest. The latest data is reflected in the table below.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Parameter

2015

(actual)

2016

(actual)

2017

(actual)

2018 2019 Difference %

(projection) (forecast) 2018 to 2019

 

 

EGGS

       
 

Production (m. dozen)

6,938*

7,435

7,677

7,844 7,980 +1.7%

 

Consumption (eggs per capita)

255.8*

271.6

276.3

279.5 280.1 +0.2%

 

New York price (c/doz.)

182*

86

101

141 124 -12.1%

                   

 

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook - November 15th 2018

*Impacted by Spring 2015 HPAI outbreaks. Consumption in 2014, 267 eggs per capita

Subscribers to EGG-NEWS are referred to the postings depicting weekly prices, volumes and trends and the monthly review of prices and related industry statistics.


 

Export of Shell Eggs and Products January-September 2018.

11/11/2018

USDA-FAS data collated by USAPEEC, reflecting export volume and values for shell eggs and egg products are shown in the table below comparing January-September 2018 with the corresponding period in 2017:-

PRODUCT

Jan.-Sept. 2017

Jan.-Sept. 2018

Difference

Shell Eggs

     

Volume (m. dozen)

91.1

86.2

-4.9 (-5.4%)

Value ($ million)

87.9

95.9

+8.0 (+9.1%)

Unit Value ($/dozen)

0.87

1.11

+0.24 (+27.6%)

Egg Products

 

 

 

Volume (metric tons)

32,777

24,040

-8,737 (-26.6%)

Value ($ million)

85.6

85.9

+0.3 (+0.4%)

Unit Value ($/metric ton)

2,612

3,573

+961 (+36.8%)

U.S. SHELL EGG AND EGG PRODUCT EXPORTS IN JANUARY-

SEPTEMBER 2018 COMPARED WITH JANUARY-SEPTEMBER 2017

Source USDA-FAS/USAPEEC

SHELL EGGS

Shell egg exports from the U.S. during January-September 2018 decreased by 4.9 percent in volume but increased 9.1 percent in total value compared to January-September 2017. Unit value was higher by 27.6 percent or 24 cents per dozen for the comparison between 2017 and 2018. The top two importing nations represented 78.5 percent of volume and 74.3 percent of value.

Canada was the leading importer over nine months, with 34.1 million dozen representing 39.1 percent of volume and 41.1 percent of value of U.S. shipments of shell eggs with an average unit value of $1.15 cents per dozen. Shell eggs shipped to Canada represent the difference between domestic demand and production limited by a national permit system.

Hong Kong ranked a close second in imports during the first nine months of 2018 with 33.6 million dozen representing 38.9 percent of volume and 33.2 percent of value at $31.9 million with a unit value of $0.95 per dozen.

Mexico was a distant third in rank during the first nine months of 2018 with 5.2 percent of volume and 4.7 percent of value,

The Caribbean Region represented 6.2 percent of export volume in January-September 2018. This region was down 60.7 percent in volume and 26.6 percent in value compared with January-September 2017. The unit value of shell eggs exports to the Caribbean averaged $2.13 per dozen for the nine-month period in 2018 which appears inordinately high, warranting validation of USDA data or an investigation of the price discrepancy.

EGG PRODUCTS

The total volume of exported egg products during the first nine months of 2018 decreased by 26.7 percent but total value was higher by 0.4 percent compared to January-September 2017. Unit value increased by 36.5 percent to $3,573 per ton from $2,612 for January-September 2017, reflecting the relationship between World supply and demand. Export volume during 2017 was influenced by the fipronil crisis and by avian influenza in the E.U.

During January-September 2018, Japan represented 32.5 percent of the total U.S. export volume with 8,471 m. tons, a decrease of 4.3 percent over the first nine months of 2017.

Mexico continued as the 2nd-ranked importer with 3,495 m. tons representing 14.5 percent of volume and 11.5 percent of value at $9.9 million. Mexico decreased volume over January-September 2018 by 29.0 percent and total value decreased by 2.9 percent compared to the corresponding nine months of 2017. In September 2018 imports of egg products by Mexico fell by 29.1 compared to September 2017.

Canada ranked third among importers attaining 14.7 percent of volume and 10.0 percent of value exported.

For January-September 2018, the 4th-ranked E.U-28 imported 1,698 m. tons of egg products, representing 7.0 percent of the volume during the first nine months of 2017 and 35.0 percent less value compared with the first three quarters of 2017. Volume of 2,251 m. tons in 2017 was presumably influenced by shortages occasioned by HPAI. The transitory impact of fipronil contamination ceased in early 2018 as flocks were replaced in Holland and Belgium.

South Korea posted a 79.5 percent lower volume for January-September 2018 compared with the first nine months of the previous year. Value declined by 53.6 percent with a unit value of $4,841 per m. ton which is far in excess of the average value of $3,573 denoting a special product mix.

COMMENTS

Successful conclusion of NAFTA negotiations led to the trilateral USMCA announced on September 30th. Exports of shell eggs and egg products to our neighbors were valued at $74.7 million in 2017.

Prospects for long-term exports of shell eggs will be limited by the willingness of importers to accept the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) principle of regionalization in the event of exotic Newcastle disease and isolation of H5 or H7 avian influenza irrespective of pathogenicity. This concern follows the early 2017 cases of North American-lineage H7N9 HPAI in broiler breeders and some backyard flocks. Most importing nations, with the noted exception of China, are now applying regionalization and permitting imports on a county or state-exclusion basis following H5 or H7 AI infection.

The recent diagnoses of END in over 170 backyard flocks in five counties in California should not impact exports since importers are complying with the OIE principle of regionalization. The outbreaks of LPAI in four organic turkey flocks in California and six commercial flocks in Minnesota should not impact export of eggs.

Generally pasteurized egg products should not be subject to any embargo imposed following reports of AI.


 

USDA-WASDE FORECAST #583 November 8th 2018

11/08/2018

OVERVIEW

The October 11th 2018 USDA WASDE projections for the 2018 corn and soybean harvests are based on actual planting data, crop progress with monitoring by "scouts", recorded crop progress and the fact that 70 percent of the new-crop corn and 87 percent of soybeans have been harvested. The acreage for corn was retained from the July through October projections at 81.8 million acres (83.1 million in 2017). Soybeans will be harvested from 88.3 million acres (89.5 million acres in 2017).

The USDA lowered corn yield by 1.0 percent to 178.9 bushels per acre from the October WASDE (175.4 bushels in 2017). Soybean yield was reduced by 1.9 percent from October to 52.1 bushels per acre (49.5 bushels in 2017).

The November USDA projection of ending stock for corn was lowered by 4.4 percent to 1,736 million bushels. Ending stock for soybeans was raised 7.7 percent to 955 million bushels resulting in predictable declines in CME quotations.

The 2018 corn and soybean crops will be the second largest ever but will be harvested during a time of uncertainty regarding previously projected, anticipated and actual export volumes. The USDA projections of ending stocks and hence prices for corn and soybeans take into account current announced tariffs on U.S. products but do not reflect tariffs or unlikely resolution of the trade conflict with China.


 


USDA DATA ON CAGE-FREE PRODUCTION

11/05/2018

Based on the importance of cage-free production, the USDA-AMS issues a monthly report on volumes and prices for the information of Industry stakeholders. There is some doubt as to the accuracy of the monthly flock numbers and the question is raised whether it would be more desirable to post accurate quarterly data in place of erratic monthly figures.

EGG-NEWS summarizes and comments on data and trends in the monthly USDA Cage-Free Report, supplementing the information posted weekly in the EGG-NEWS Egg Weekly Price and Inventory Report.

The USDA Cage Free Report for the month of October 2018 released on November 2nd 2018 documented constant flock sizes in hens producing under the Certified Organic seal and for cage-free flocks as compared to September 2018. Organic and cage-free egg production were down <0.1 percent from September. The respective numbers of hens in organic and cage-free flocks should reflect the realities of supply and demand in the market over successive quarters. Average flock production remained at 75.3 percent for both categories of non-caged hens (accepting USDA data):-

Flock size '18 (million hens)

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Certified Organic

15.6

15.6

15.6

15.6

15.7

15.7

Cage-free hens

38.9

39.1

39.1

39.1

41.4

41.5

Total non-caged

54.5

54.7

54.7

54.7

57.1

57.2

Average weekly production cases, October 2018 Δ

Certified Organic

229,517 was 229,356 Sept. < -0.1%

Cage-free

606,787 was 606,304 Sept. < -0.1%

Total non-caged

836,304 was 835,660 Sept. < -0.1%

Average Wholesale Contract Price Cage-Free Brown

$1.56/doz. Down 3 cents/doz. From Sept.

Range unchanged at:

$1.15 to $2.10/doz. (Av. $1.56/doz)

FOB Negotiated price, grade quality nest- run, loose

Average up 0.9 percent from September with narrower spread

$1.02 to $1.37/doz. (Av. $1.14/doz)

Average Advertised National Retail Price C-F, L, Brown

$2.62/doz. (was $2.55 September)

USDA 6-Region

High: NE

$2.96/doz. $2.74 SW

 

Low: MW

$2.19/doz. $2.24 MW

 

Kindly refer to weekly USDA wholesale and retail prices posted in the EGG-NEWS Egg Price and Inventory Report E-mailed each Friday. The previous Monthly Cage-Free Report is available under the STATISTICS Tab.


 

REVIEW OF OCTOBER PRODUCTION STATISTICS AND COSTS.

11/05/2018
  • October 2018 USDA Ex-Farm Benchmark Price up 10.5 Percent from September Consistent with Seasonal Trends.

  • USDA Average Nest-run Production Cost Fractionally Lower to 60.0 cents per dozen.

  • Positive USDA Benchmark Nest-run Margin Increased 61.4 percent from September to 20.5 cents per dozen

 

INTRODUCTION.

Summary tables for the latest USDA October 2018 statistics and prices made available by the EIC on November 5th are arranged, summarized, tabulated and reviewed in comparison with values from the previous October 8th 2018 posting reflecting September 2018 data.

 

COSTS & REVENUE

Parameter

SEPTEMBER 2018

OCTOBER 2018

5-Region Cost of Production ex farm (1st Cycle)

60.08 c/doz

59.98 c/doz

Low

55.17 c/doz (MW)

55.65c/doz (MW)

High

76.68 c/doz (CA)

77.03 c/doz (CA)

 

Components of 6-Region 1stCycle Cost of Production:-

 

SEPTEMBER 2018

OCTOBER 2018

Feed

31.72 c/doz

31.63c/doz

Pullet depreciation

10.84 c/doz

10.84 c/doz

Labor

4.00 c/doz

4.00 c/doz

Housing

5.30 c/doz

5.30 c/doz

Miscellaneous and other*

8.22 c/doz

8.21 c/doz


* adjusted February 2018

Ex Farm Margin according to USDA values reflecting OCTOBER 2018:-

80.5 cents per dozen1- 60.0 cents per dozen = +20.5 cents per dozen

(September 2018 comparison 72.8 1 cents per dozen - 60.1 cents per dozen = +12.7 cents per dozen.)


 


Updated USDA Projections for 2018 and 2019 Egg Production

10/17/2018

The USDA Economic Research Service issued an updated October 17 th 2018 forecast of egg production unchanged from the previous September 18th report. The volume of eggs produced and per capita consumption for 2019 were increased by 1.7 and 0.5 percent respectively over 2018. Consistent with this disparity the benchmark New York price was reduced by 12.2 percent in unit value Production data reflecting 2016 and 2017 should be compared to 2015, impacted by the Spring outbreak of HPAI in the upper-Midwest. The latest data is reflected in the table below:

 

Parameter 2015 (actual) 2016 (actual) 2017 (actual)

2018 2019 Difference %

(projection) (forecast)

2018 to 2019

EGGS        
Production (m. dozen) 6,938*

7,435

7,677 7,845 7,980 +1.7%
Consumption (eggs per capita) 255.8* 271.6 276.3 270.0 280.3 +0.5%
New York price (c/doz.) 182* 86 101 141 124 -12.2%

 

Source: Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook - September 18th 2018

*Impacted by Spring 2015 HPAI outbreaks. Consumption in 2014, 267 eggs per capita

Subscribers to EGG-NEWS are referred to the postings depicting weekly prices, volumes and trends and the monthly review of prices and related industry statistics.


 




















































































































































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